A few thoughts on the latest boatload of Edmonton Oilers rumours

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Acronym soup of OEL, RNH, AA, JP & more

There has been nothing normal about hockey in 2020, and that seems certain to carry over to the off-season which is finally getting underway as the calendar turns to October. The combination of a flat salary cap and many teams facing financial constraints and internal budgets has turned the game’s financial structure on its ear.

Player contracts with term and cap hit that were once considered assets are being re-examined. Players without contracts are in a tough spot, even Restricted Free Agents who might normally expect an automatic qualifying offer to retain their services. That deadline is fast approaching; look for way more young-ish players than usual to not be qualified by the Oct 07 cut-off, and to subsequently flood the UFA market that opens two days later.

One club caught up in the maelstrom is our own Edmonton Oilers, who are heavily featured in a content-laden article published on tsn.ca earlier today. TSN senior hockey writer Frank Seravalli authored that piece, with the provocative headline Trade Bait: Frozen cap makes ‘franchise-changing’ players available. Some of it is new, some has been kicked around in various forms for awhile. I encourage readers to view Seravalli’s article first if you haven’t already; I will quote some of the bullet points specific to the Oilers here and respond with my own takes.

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  • The Oilers are attempting to find a taker for either restricted free agent Andreas Athanasiou and/or Matt Benning, both of whom will likely not receive a qualifying offer due to lack of cap space.

The flat cap has changed the equation for RFAs, which will affect many players of this class league-wide. Many teams have an Athanasiou and/or a Benning who they’d like to keep but at something less than the qualifying offer, and without any possibility of arbitration.

We’ve discussed the Athanasiou situation extensively in both posts and podcasts here at the Cult of Hockey, most recently in this post by Kurt Leavins (scroll down to Item #1), while David Staples and I jointly discussed his situation here. The Oilers gave up two second-round picks to bring him on board at the trade deadline. Now they must qualify him at $3.0 million, negotiate an extension at a lower price, find a trading partner, or let him walk. Seravalli’s words suggest they are already onto the third of these options, and if so, don’t expect a ton in return. Trading a player’s negotiating rights typically garners a pick in the range of the fifth round.

As previously discussed here, Benning is a four-year Oiler who was signed to a relatively generous extension at the expiry of his ELC that sets his qualifying offer at $2.0 million. That too is a bit rich for a third-pairing d-man, albeit a solid one, who has seen his ice time settle out at under 15 minutes a night while fighting injury issues. It would hurt to lose this player, but the chances of the Oilers finding an equally-qualified replacement at a lower figure are pretty darn good in this market.

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  • If [Oscar] Klefbom is out for a long stretch, it would create opportunity on the salary cap by potentially using his $4.17 as a long-term injury exception to acquire a replacement. The Oilers are believed to have had preliminary discussions on acquiring defenceman Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the new No. 1 on the Trade Bait board, from Arizona. But there is a financial component to the potential transaction that would need to involve Arizona retaining a portion of Ekman-Larsson’s salary, which the Coyotes have not been willing to budge on. Top-end defensive prospect Evan Bouchard (No. 46) and the Oilers’ first-round pick could be involved in a deal. 

The OEL discussion has been ongoing for some time, while the news about Klefbom broke yesterday. I discussed both in some depth in this post, with the reported structure of a deal being the 14th overall pick, a good blueline prospect, and a contract going the other way, namely Kris Russell. Interesting to note that Seravalli’s latest “trade bait” list includes both Russell and Evan Bouchard, as well as OEL himself at #1.

Such a trade would require both Ekman-Larsson and Russell to potentially waive no-trade clauses. TSN insider Darren Dreger and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman have thrown a pail of water on this hot rumour today:

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A bit surprising in that the player’s long-time coach, Dave Tippett, is in Edmonton and presumably something of a draw. Noting the words “unless something changes”, let’s call it a fluid situation and take a wait-and-see approach.

  • The Oilers are believed to have made recent progress with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ camp on a long-term extension. Nugent-Hopkins, 27, is entering the final year of his deal at $6 million. There may actually be some urgency to getting a deal done sooner rather than later, or at the very least knowing in concrete terms whether there is a deal to be had.

The window has opened to re-sign players whose contracts expire in 2021 as is the case with RNH, indeed players like Jeff Petry and Jonas Brodin have signed rich extensions in recent times. What’s new about the Nuge’s situation is the mention of urgency, that the club wants to either get something done or at least lay concrete foundations for such an extension. TSN’s local bureau chief Ryan Rishaug chips in with a salary estimate:

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  • If Nugent-Hopkins is not in the fold, sources suggest the Oilers are interested in targeting Taylor Hall if he were to hit the free agent market

There’s that name again. Taylor Hall has been in the centre of “return to Edmonton” chatter since about 10 minutes after Peter Chiarelli traded him away in 2016. Now the actual contract that he traded has run its course, and Hall is set to enter the open market… at the worst possible time. That his possible comeback is potentially tied to the departure of another popular Oiler makes it a little tougher to swallow.

Hall famously had an MVP season while in New Jersey in 2017-18, but since then has dealt with injury and a mid-season trade to Arizona. Food for thought: over the past two seasons Hall has played just 98 games, scoring 27-62-89 (0.91 P/GP). Nugent-Hopkins over the same span has played 147 contests, with 50-80-130 (0.88 P/GP). While both players are currently left wingers, RNH offers more versatility with his ability to fill in at centre, along with his significant contributions to both special teams.

A mitigating argument is that Hall could be signed for just money, while in that scenario RNH could be traded for other assets such as a first-round pick and/or other asset. If the dollars are close, that could be a consideration, though the timing of these decisions presents its own challenge within the compressed timetable.

  • Then there is the goalie market. Holland is set on acquiring a starter. The Oil have already been linked to Trade Bait in Matt Murray (No. 4), Darcy Kuemper (No. 21) and Petr Mrazek. Free agency is just nine days away and there is a slew of starters available, with many wondering whether the Oilers would take a run at Jacob Markstrom if he makes it to market.

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The takeaway here is Holland looking to acquire a “starter”. He’s got a decent though pricey #1A on staff already in Mikko Koskinen, and limited cap space to add another expensive ‘tender. He did show the restraint to back off on the Matt Murray negotiations, a good decision in my view given the red flags surrounding Murray’s recent performance despite his Stanley Cup pedigree. The acquisition of Kuemper (2 years at AAV $4.5) would push the goaltending budget to $9 million, the signing of Markstrom would surely inflate it to something close to $10 mil. Mrazek is a bit cheaper at $3.125 mil, but like Murray he has seen his numbers slide in recent years after a promising early run.

Fallback position here might be the most economical, namely, to wait for the expected flood of goalies to hit the free agent market and to play the game of musical chairs to the team’s advantage. Every chance to get a decent complementary goalie to share the load with Koskinen for less than any of the above ‘tenders. Maybe not a Markstrom, but a good goalie creating a substantially better cap situation.

  • Oilers are also in discussion to bring Jesse Puljujarvi back into the fold. Puljujarvi, 22, had 53 points in 56 games last season in Finland’s Liiga and the Oilers hold his rights until his 27th birthday. He is likely to remain in Europe until next season, but if/when a deal is worked out, it is likely to be a one-year contract worth $1.2 to $1.5 million.

This one has been gaining momentum for quite a while. Sounds like the negotiation has come down to haggling over price point. The player’s qualifying offer is a little under $1 million, while his rumoured ask is closer to the $1.5 mentioned here. While Holland holds the player’s NHL future in his hands, I won’t be surprised to see a compromise in the $1.25 range.

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  • Adding Puljujarvi back to the mix would only add to Edmonton’s glut at right wing. Sources say the Oilers engaged the Boston Bruins on a left/right wing swap, Alex Chiasson for Anders Bjork. (Assistant GM Keith Gretzky drafted Bjork in Boston.) We’ll see where that goes, but the Oilers are pursuing a number of similar left/right swaps with other teams. There were rumours about the Oilers’ interest in bringing Bruins RFA Jake DeBrusk home to Edmonton. DeBrusk is No. 7 on the Trade Bait board, but given the Oilers’ cap constraints plus acquisition cost, he is likely too expensive.

The glut at RW would include currently-signed NHLers Zack Kassian, Alex Chiasson, Josh Archibald, Kailer Yamamoto and Patrick Russell, all right-shot wingers. Puljujarvi would make six, which is not a workable number. Left wing is a little more open, with just RNH, James Neal, and Joakim Nygard under contract, RFA Athanasiou likely on the way out, and UFA Tyler Ennis waiting in the wings as the clock ticks down to Oct 09. Tyler Benson is close to breaking through, but a more proven youngster like Bjork would be fully ready to go. He just signed a three-year extension with the B’s at $1.6 million AAV, about half a million south of Chiasson’s one remaining year at $2.15.

From this distance, DeBrusk is a pipe dream. The Oilers have very limited cap space to make a move, and with names like Ekman-Larsson, Hall and Markstrom being bandied about, well, maybe they are all pipe dreams. Hard to envision the Oilers being able to bring more than one of them aboard.

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Which brings us back to that flat salary cap. Even a team willing to spend to the ceiling has had its budget gutted. While the anticipated rise from $81.5 to about $85.5 – $86 million represented just a ~5% increase, fact is that by far the lion’s share of a given team’s cap is already committed. The true impact of the rollback is considerably greater. In the case of the Oilers, Holland’s original budget left him with about $12 million to sign five players; now that’s been cut to ~$8 million to fill the same five holes. That’s not a 5% decrease, it’s closer to 33%. It’s the reason RFA’s like Athanasiou and Benning may be hung out to dry when Plan A in the pre-COVID regime was likely to bring them back.

While the temptation is strong to go after a “franchise-changing player”, the realities of cap space in 2020 suggest the more prudent approach is to find bargains on the UFA market, and not necessarily on the day it opens either. Ken Holland may make one major move but will also be tested to find appropriate players to fill team needs at bargain prices in the weeks to come.

Recently at the Cult of Hockey

McCURDY: Klefbom news will have far-reaching effects on Oilers’ blueline

STAPLES: Bombshell — Klefbom considering surgery

STAPLES: What to make of Oilers rumour-o-rama?

STAPLES: Oilers can likely get high-powered attacker at 14th overall

McCURDY: Retain Mike Smith? Hmm

LEAVINS: Athanasiou’s future with Oilers likely up to him — 9 Things

Follow me on Twitter @BruceMcCurdy

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