Alberta's COVID-19 ICU admissions could exceed previous peaks, government modelling shows

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Peak COVID-19 hospitalizations could exceed previous waves, new provincial modelling released Friday indicates, while Alberta currently sits at an intensive care unit capacity of 95 per cent.

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The projections are based on information available from mid-August and show estimated new daily COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations to the end of September.

“The impacts are much higher than in previous models, with later and higher potential peaks,” Alberta’s chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw said during an update on COVID-19 Friday.

“It should be noted that there are no guarantees of when our peak will arrive, and this modelling assumes a constant mixing pattern amongst the population.”

The modelling indicates ICU patients could peak around 100 in a “low” scenario and 180 in the “medium” scenario. In the “high” scenario, numbers could peak around 300, higher than any other wave.

According to Alberta Health data, the second wave had ICU admissions peak in December at 154, while in the third wave, they peaked at 182 in May.

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Non-ICU hospitalizations are currently trending toward a high scenario, with a potential projected peak of 700 in the next several weeks. The low scenario shows a peak of around 200, while the medium scenario has a projected peak between 400 and 500.

The second wave saw a peak of 761 non-ICU hospitalizations while the third wave of hospitalizations peaked at 565.

The modelling also shows daily new cases of COVID-19 could peak at around 1,900.

“Over the past week, we have crossed from the low scenario, moving up towards the high and it is clear that we are at risk of exceeding our province’s ICU capacity if we do not make changes to our approach,” Hinshaw said.

On Friday, Alberta reported 1,401 new cases of COVID-19. It is the first time daily cases have surpassed 1,400 since 1,468 were reported on May 13. There are 515 people hospitalized with COVID-19, an increase of 28 from Thursday. Of those, 118 are in the ICU, an increase of four.

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Over the last 24 hours, 12,551 tests were completed for a positivity rate of 11 per cent.

Across the province, there are 13,496 active cases, while in the city of Edmonton, there are 2,728 active cases.

Two more deaths raised the provincial death toll to 2,390.

Alberta Health Services (AHS) president and CEO Dr. Verna Yiu said Friday ICU capacity is currently at 95 per cent across the province and 97 per cent in Edmonton.

Yiu said teams are working hard to increase ICU capacity.

“We’re building additional surge beds throughout the province. And right now we’ve built about an additional 47 surge beds on top of our 173 baseline,” Yiu said.

“There are more beds in Edmonton Zone but it is tight, there’s no question about that. And we are building more capacity in anticipation of the long weekend, as well as for next week.

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“We’re always trying to keep on top of the projections, according to the early warning system that we’ve developed in Alberta Health Services, but it is going to be a struggle, there’s no question about that but the teams are working very hard.”

In order to ensure additional ICU capacity, Yiu said AHS is postponing surgeries across all zones.

In Edmonton, up to 50 per cent of non-essential surgeries will be cancelled, up from about 30 per cent last week.

“As we have said throughout the pandemic, AHS will maintain urgent and emergent procedures as well as prioritized cancer surgeries,” she said.

The Edmonton Zone is also preparing the Pandemic Response Unit (PRU) at the Kaye Edmonton Clinic to potentially open in the next few weeks.

Patients recovering from COVID-19 and are deemed to be at low risk of transmitting it, would be treated at the PRU if that additional capacity is required.

ajunker@postmedia.com

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