Around the NHL in 80 days — Oilers have come a very long way since last meeting Kings

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Game Day 76: Los Angeles at Edmonton

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Exactly 80 days have passed since the last time Edmonton Oilers faced Thursday night’s opponents and historical rivals, L.A. Kings. That was back on Jan 09 when the Oilers fell, hard but proud, at Los Angeles. It was Game 42, marking the start of the second half of 2022-23.

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When it ended with a convincing 6-3 scoreline favouring the ungracious hosts, Edmonton had lost as many games as they had won, with 21 of each. Moreover, they had acquired a bonus point from the NHL’s cockamamie points system in just 3 of those 21 losses, well below the league’s average rate. As a result, the Oilers and their .536 points percentage ranked 20th in the NHL, 10th in the West, 5th in the Pacific, and on the wrong side of every playoff cut line.

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Lots went wrong that night in Crypto.com Arena, and even good news had unsettling implications. It was revealed that newly-identified #1 goalie Stu Skinner was headed back to Edmonton to attend the birth of his first child, leaving the starting chores to the then-struggling Jack Campbell for at least the 3 remaining games of the road trip.

One item of note from the game itself. The Oilers were soundly beaten on the scoreboard, but answered the bell on the physical side of things, taking 41 of 70 minutes in penalties. All of Jesse Puljujarvi, Zach Hyman and Klim Kostin engaged in fisticuffs, matching the total number of fights from the entire first half of the season. The Oilers had suddenly tired, it seemed, of turning the other cheek.

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That approach was magnified in the very next outing, when hulking too-old-to-be-an-official-rookie Vincent Desharnais made his NHL debut in a convincing 6-2 victory in Anaheim. The Oilers proceeded to reel off a 5-game winning streak. For the most part they’ve been winning, or at least “getting a result”, ever since.

In all, the Oil have played 33 games since the loss in L.A., and have won 22 of them, a sustained pace of 2 wins every 3 games. Moreover, of the 11 lost games Edmonton secured a loser point in more than half of them. Their overall record of 22-5-6 has netted 50 points for a points percentage of .758. That’s first overall in the entire NHL for the identified 80-day stretch, just ahead of Boston’s .750.

To recap from an Edmonton perspective:

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So what has gone right since Jan 09? Here are some of the highlights:

Overpowering offence

On a per-game basis, the Oilers tightened up their defensive record slightly, from 3.38 to 3.27 GA/GP. But on the goal scoring front, they have positively exploded from an average of 3.50 to 4.58 GF/GP. No other NHL team over that span has scored as many as 3.8 per contest. Simply put, as the season has gone on the Oilers have separated from the pack as an offensive powerhouse.

While the top scorers have all seen an uptick in their already-impressive scoring rates — Hart Trophy favourite Connor McDavid from 1.83 points per game to 2.00, Leon Draisaitl from 1.55 to 1.64, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from 1.14 to 1.45, Zach Hyman from 1.07 to 1.10 — even bigger increases have been seen down the line-up. The poster boy is surely Warren Foegele, whose per-game points rate has soared from 0.24 to 0.61; others include Kailer Yamamoto (0.37 to 0.57), Mattias Janmark (0.32 to 0.42), and Devin Shore (0.10 to 0.38).

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On the back end, Darnell Nurse (0.50 to 0.61), Evan Bouchard (0.38 to 0.55), Brett Kulak (0.21 to 0.33) all saw significant bumps in their production. A rising tide floats all boats.

From a team perspective, the high-flying powerplay that was leading the NHL with a 31.0% conversion rate on Jan 09 has soared to 35.3% since then. No other NHL team reached 30% in either block of games. It’s an enormous weapon that has decided more than a few games along the way.

Bottom line is that on many nights the Oilers have been able to outscore their mistakes, in the best tradition of the dynasty squad of the 1980s. After an initial unbeaten run of 11 games where Edmonton held their opponents to 3 or fewer goals, in recent times the trend has been to higher scoring contests. Just in the last fortnight the Oil have won regulation games by scores of 6-4, 5-4, 5-4, and 7-4. In the month of March, they have scored at least 3 times in all 14 games to date.

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Bottom 6 support

During the first three years of Ken Holland’s regime, Edmonton’s bottom 6 had been a black hole. Most easily calculated (thanks to the superb Line Tool of Natural Stat Trick) by goal share with both McDavid and Draisaitl on the bench, from 2019-22 the Oilers scored just 39% of the goals at 5v5, a very poor number.

Over the first 42 games of this season, that improved to a 47% goal share (30 for, 34 against). In the past 33, it has exploded to 62% (40 for, 25 against), a figure which is well supported by excellent underlying shot, scoring chance and expected goal shares.

Credit due to Holland for upgrading his supporting cast, to Jay Woodcroft and the coaching staff for coaxing terrific results from them at both ends of the sheet, and of course to the players themselves who have raised their game. To this point at least, what had been a fatal flaw has suddenly developed into a significant strength.

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Upgrades at the trade deadline

The Oilers second-half roll was already well-established by the end of February, when Holland engineered a trio of trades. First Puljujarvi was sent to Carolina with zero cap retention, creating a much-needed $3 million in cap space. Holland used half of it to upgrade the defence, sending out popular veteran Tyson Barrie and a couple of major future assets to land all-purpose defender Mattias Ekholm; the other half to expand the roster from 20 active players to 22. One of those positions was filled by internal promotion, the other in a creative deal that landed versatile veteran forward Nick Bjugstad for a pick and a prospect. Cap retention was negotiated in both cases, and every dollar of available cap space utilized.

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On the ice, Ekholm’s arrival transformed the shape of the d-corps from a tough minutes pairing of Nurse and Cody Ceci and a collection of third-pairing types who needed significant degrees of shelter, to a true top 4/bottom pairing arrangement. Ekholm was instantly paired up with young Bouchard, who rose from the third pairing to the second in magnificent style while also taking over point duties on that awesome first powerplay unit. For his part Ekholm (along with Desharnais) took a regular turn on the penalty kill unit (something Barrie had struggled with), with Nurse-Ceci rounding out the main quartet on the PK.

Up front, with 3C Ryan McLeod unavailable due to injury, Bjugstad stepped directly into that important role and has delivered excellent results for the low low cap hit of $450,000. How things shake out when McLeod returns remains to be seen, but at minimum it seems the Oilers have acquired even more depth at the all-important pivot position. Not to mention a much-needed right-hand faceoff man capable of being used on the penalty kill or late-game defensive situations. A strong case can be made that Edmonton has the best and deepest group of centres in the NHL.

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Bigger and better

Over the course of the season, Holland has continuously added size to the roster.

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Incumbents like Nurse (6’4, 221), Ceci (6’2, 210), Draisaitl (6’2, 208), McLeod (6’2, 207) remain. Others including Janmark (6’1, 205), Foegele (6’2, 198) and McDavid (6’1, 193) can hold their own in the heavy going and then some.

Maturity

Endlessly considered “the young Edmonton Oilers”, this is no longer the case. The current edition of the Oilers features no fewer than 12 regular skaters between the ages of 26-30 years old. Indeed, the with the exception of outliers Derek Ryan (36) and Philip Broberg (21), every member of the current roster is between the ages of 23 (Bouchard, McLeod) and 32 (Ekholm). It is a mature and experienced group that Holland has assembled for the upcoming playoff run. Also a bigger, faster team than any Oilers squad in recent memory.

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Flaws

Lots going right for the Oil these days, but the club remains vulnerable.

The goaltending remains a worry. Rookie Stuart Skinner has performed well but is lightly experienced for a #1, especially with playoffs looming.  Veteran Jack Campbell, signed long-term with much hoopla on the first day of free agency, has failed to cover the bet and has needed several extended stints of backup duty to “find his game”. That project remains a work in progress.

The defence is shallow. Thankfully all of Nurse, Ceci, Bouchard, and Kulak have played every single game, as did Barrie before the big trade and Ekholm since. A significant injury to even one of those vets would up the pressure on the others, as well as the inexperienced trio of Broberg (65 career GP), Desharnais (29) and farmhand Markus Niemelainen (43). Veteran Ryan Murray was signed as a depth option, but has been unavailable for months.

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Outlook

Many more good things than bad happening in Oil Country this last while, even as the club remains a superficially-disappointing third in the Pacific. But let’s face it, Oilers fans, success or failure in 2022-23 will ultimately be defined by the post-season.

Over the past 80 days the club has all but clinched its involvement there, while posting the best results in the Western Conference and arguably, the NHL as a whole. Lots of reasons to be excited as the regular season dwindles and the playoffs loom.

[Line-ups and other game day info to be added to this space on Thursday morning.]

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