Caleb Jones whiffed at his first chance to move up Edmonton Oilers' depth chart. Will he get another?

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2021 Edmonton Oilers in review
Caleb Jones

Only eight months and change have passed since I last wrote a season review on today’s subject, its headline asking the critical question: Is Caleb Jones ready for Top 4 duty on the Edmonton Oilers’ blueline?

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The answer in the immediate short term was “no”, even as a brave explorer of Oil Country might find a difference of opinion between “no, not yet” and “no, never!”.  But the upshot of Jones’ uneven 2021 season may be not so much a step forward as a shuffle sideways, be it to Chicago, Seattle or some other NHL city.

His name has been prominently featured as one that might go the other way in this week’s feature rumour, that the Oilers are going hard after Chicago Blackhawks “legacy” defenceman Duncan Keith. The topic has been covered in depth by my Cult of Hockey colleagues David Staples and Kurt Leavins here, here, here, here, and here, and discussed by Staples and myself in the podcast embedded with this post, so let’s narrow the focus here specifically to the performance of Jones.

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Suffice to say his Draft + 6 season didn’t go as planned. The absence of Oscar Klefbom opened a giant window of opportunity for somebody to step into a top-4 role on the left side, and Jones was given first crack at it. Paired with Adam Larsson to start the season, he stumbled out of the gate. These comments from our player grades here at the Cult of Hockey tell a sad tale:

  • Game 1, Grade = 3.  Had a tough night on a pairing that was burned for 3 goals against before getting 1 back late. His pinch on the first Canucks goal was a defensible move; he got his man though not the puck, leading to what should have been a routine 2-on-2. But he was more directly at fault on 2 goals on consecutive shifts early in the decisive third period, allowing a pass on the 3-2 tally and then getting drawn far out of position on the 4-2 when Boeser got loose behind both Jones and Larsson after a failed Oilers breakout. Did earn an assist by teeing up Larsson’s one-timer that later cut the deficit.  (McCurdy)
  • Game 2, Grade = 3. For the second consecutive night Jones really struggled with notable defensive errors in all 3 periods. He and Larsson were caved in the possession stats. But to my eye, the sophomore was primarily the one fighting it. His giveaway along the wall led to the 2-1. Was stripped of the puck at the attacking blueline without getting it deep. An unforced 3rd Period icing. Did have a good 1st Period shot block. (Leavins)
  • Game 3, Grade = 2. Took an ill-advised interference penalty on a dump-in early in the game, which Montreal punished with a power play goal. He and Puljujarvi combined to allow Tatar in on for his breakaway goal in the third. Has got to show more. (Staples)

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Three games, three reviewers, and each of us gave Jones the lowest grade of any Oiler on the night. Far more important than the opinions of us pundits were those of the Oilers coaching staff, who responded by benching the struggling defender for the next four games.

His second stretch of games went a little better, but Jones was undone by a couple of poor outcomes on the penalty kill. Twice he failed to close down the shooting lane, and opponents Auston Matthews and Drake Batherson took full advantage to wire home hard wrist shots from the slot. The first one decided a game, but it was the second just two games later that drew Dave Tippett’s wrath. Oddly, these were the only 2 powerplay goals scored on Jones’ watch all season long (in 20 shorthanded minutes), but timing is everything.

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Jones found himself sitting in the press box for the next 9 games in a row while William Lagesson, Slater Koekkoek, and Kris Russell shared the left-side minutes behind Darnell Nurse. Frequently Tippett cited their ability to kill penalties as a factor in his game-night roster choices.

Only when Koekkoek suffered a broken clavicle in Game 20 did Jones get another shot, and that in a limited role that can best be described as “third pairing”. If the Oilers happened to be defending a lead down the stretch, he would often be nailed to the bench for the final 10 or more minutes. The takeaway by this outsider was that the player hadn’t fully earned his coach’s trust.

His deployment numbers support that notion. On the season Caleb appeared in just 33 of Edmonton’s 56 games (59%). Not once did he play as much as 20 minutes in a game, and he reached the 15-minute mark just 9 times, averaging 13:36 a night overall. It was a step back across the board from his achievements in 2019-20, when he played 43 of 71 games (61%) including 2 games over 20 minutes and 18 of 15+ minutes on ice, averaging 14:08. Worth remembering that 2019-20 was the last year of his Entry Level Contract, and Jones had started out in the AHL where he played 14 games (3-8-11) to earn his recall. By 2021 he was on the NHL roster the full season but nonetheless saw less action, meaning he was a “coach’s decision” far more often. This in a season where the absence of Oscar Klefbom opened an extra spot on the left side on a nightly basis.

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Despite the continued sheltering he also experienced a small but measurable drop-off in his play. His boxcar stats dropped from 4-5-9 to just 0-4-4. His on-ice goal differential at 5v5 plummeted from +27/-25 = 52% goal share to just +11/-18 = 38%.  That may have been something of a mirage in that both his shot shares and expected goals stayed steady right at 50% in both seasons. (All numbers per naturalstattrick.com).

Our own metrics here at the Cult of Hockey also support the case that he was, at best, running in place. Our analysis of contributions to goals and contributions to Grade A scoring chances had him a little worse at both ends of the ice than he had been in 2019-20. A separate analysis specific to “bad” mistakes (turnovers, bad line changes, bad pinches, breakaways allowed) was a tell, as Jones had the most such on the team by a comfortable — or should I say, uncomfortable — margin. This in a third-pairing role, lining up against lower-tiered opponents than many of his teammates did.

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Which isn’t to say there weren’t promising signs. Jones was particularly susceptible to Quality of Teammate effects in the sense that the Oilers outshot their opponents 60-44 (58% shot share) in 114 minutes with Leon Draisaitl, and by an impressive 50-27 (65%) in just 74 minutes with Connor McDavid. But those shot shares went south when paired with lesser teammates like Devin Shore (21-46, 31% in 78 minutes) or Josh Archibald (28-46, 38% in 102 minutes). A reflection on the calibre of those mates to be sure, but at both ends of the spectrum both Jones and the teammate moderated toward the middle when they were separated. Indeed, both McDavid and Draisaitl had better shot shares with Jones than with any other regular teammate. It would be nice to see him get a more extended opportunity with the high-end talent to see if it’s real.

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That said, there’s no guarantee at this point that Oil fans will get to see him at all, at least not in blue and orange. For starters there are those pesky Keith rumours, and beyond that the very real possibility that the Oilers will not be able to protect the young defender in the upcoming expansion draft. A year ago he was on many people’s protected lists, including this writer’s, but things have changed. For one thing, the emergence of Jesse Puljujarvi along with the recent re-signing of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has pushed the Oilers away from a possible 4/4/1 forward/defenceman/goalie protected list to the 7/3/1 option, recently confirmed by Holland. There was a lot more room for Caleb Jones as the #4 man on the list than as #3. His name remains a possibility if Adam Larsson doesn’t re-sign and no other moves take place before the protected list is declared; among vulnerable players currently under contract, only Darnell Nurse and Ethan Bear are clearly ahead of him.

Which maybe speaks to why Ken Holland considers upgrading his defence to be an extremely high priority. July will be a telling month, and will perhaps cast the die on Caleb Jones’ NHL future.

Recently at the Cult of Hockey

STAPLES: Rumoured price for Keith doesn’t make sense for Oilers

McCURDY: What Edmonton can learn from Tampa

LEAVINS: Keith knows a thing or two about winning — 9 Things

STAPLES: The big question about salary retention when it comes to Duncan Keith

McCURDY: It’s unanimous, Connor McDavid is the best player in hockey

Follow me on Twitter @BruceMcCurdy

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