Duncan Keith deal to be had with Chicago retaining 30-to-50%, says NHL insider

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This in from NHL insider Brian Lawton, a former GM and agent, his belief that the Chicago Blackhawks might be willing to retain on Duncan Keith’s contract in order to move out the soon-to-be 38-year-old player, who has slipped a bit in recent seasons.

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“I would not take Duncan Keith at $5.5 (million per year for two years),” Lawton said to Bob Stauffer on Oilers Now. “But I think there is some middle ground in there, I really do. I think there’s a deal with Chicago with potentially maintaining 30 to 50 per cent of the salary. If that were to happen, I think this would be a very good deal for the Oilers depending on what they give up not being anything other than what I’ve heard. A guy like Caleb Jones is expendable to me.”

Stauffer said at this time Chicago did not want to retain salary, but asked if that might change closer to Chicago putting in its expansion draft list later in July.

“It does for me,” Lawton said.

What’s true today may not be the case in a week for Hawks GM Stan Bowman, Stauffer said.

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“Correct,” Lawton said. “100 per cent. I don’t have any doubt about that. This is one where you’ve got to be patient. But you have to be outside of the box this year. I don’t care who you are. I’ve talked to a number of GMs. I talked to one the other day who was calling it, the NHL, stood for the Nothing Happening League in regard to moves made because of the salary cap crunch… It’s pretty stifled out there right now.”

It’s important to consider things you would not normally consider doing, Lawton said.

Keith has a no move clause and he’s got great performance and history with the fanbase. “He’s going to dictate if he goes anywhere, where he goes. He seems to have made it clear that he would accept a trade to Edmonton. Somehow you’ve got to take advantage of that.”

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As for Keith, he can still skate and play at second-pairing defence in the NHL, said Lawton. It’s important to blend his analytics with other factors that don’t show up in such measurements, including his leadership. “You cannot deny what Montreal was able to do plucking veteran players like Corey Perry, even Eric Staal to a much lesser degree, that have added significantly to the mix.”

The Oilers are a young team that can benefit from adding a few veterans that could maybe help show the way to many players, Lawton said, including Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. “It would make their lives easier if you got some more veteran leadership in there.”

My take

1. Fifty per cent retention on Duncan Keith’s contract? That is more like it. That sounds like a realistic evaluation of Keith’s true level of talent at age 38. He’s not Chris Chelios at that age. He’s no longer a No. 1 pairing d-man. But he could well help the Oilers at second or third-paring defence, which would place his value somewhere between $3.5 million and $1.5 million per year. If this deal is heading where Lawton suggests, it’s heading in a direction that might well make sense for the Oilers.