Edmonton Oilers top prospect Matt Savoie emerging as one of AHL's top rookies

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Condors 3, Firebirds 4 (SO)

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With the parent club Edmonton Oilers currently on an extended break for the 4 Nations Face-Off, their top affiliate took a turn in the spotlight on Sunday night. Having finished a 6-game home stand on Saturday, the Bakersfield Condors hit the road for a game at Coachella Valley, which they dropped 4-3 in the shootout.

Despite 11 powerplay opportunities for the 2 squads, all 6 real goals were scored at 5v5. The Condors led 1-0 after a strong first period, gave up the lead in the second, then forged a pair of 1-goal comebacks in a high-energy third to force overtime and eventually, the shootout. There they had no fewer than 3 chances to win with a single successful outcome — twice a shooter, once the goalie — but couldn’t get the job done, ultimately dropping the skills contest in 5 rounds.

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Here’s how it’s been going for the Condors of late: in the last 9 days they’ve played 5 times, winning 1 game by 4 goals and losing 4 games by 1 goal each. At least they were able to garner a standings point this time after losing 3-2 and 4-3 at home earlier in the week, both times in regulation.

This year’s theme: close but no cigar.

Colin Chaulk’s crew currently sports a 20-17-8 record for 48 points, tied for the  seventh and final playoff spot in the division but with 2 games in hand. Their 133 goals for are dead last in the Pacific, their 143 goals against in the middle of the pack, and their -10 goal differential superior to just the 2 clubs trailing the field.

Top prospect

It’s hardly breaking news that the Edmonton system isn’t chock-a-block with high-end prospects, but there is one player Oil fans should be excited about. That is 20-year-old forward Matt Savoie, acquired by trade for Ryan McLeod last July.

Savoie continued his strong run of play on Sunday, earning an assist and posting +2 to bump his seasonal totals to 45 GP, 13-24-37, +16. That currently ranks him third among AHL rookies in both points and plus.

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As is often the case with rookie pros who frequently make measurable progress as the season goes along, it is instructive to consider his splits. Presented here in two ~equal halves:

• Through Dec 15: 22 GP, 4-8-12, -1
• Since Dec 16: 23 GP, 9-16-25, +17

Hey lookit! After a so-so start Savoie has exploded into a point-per-game scorer in that second set of games, with an eye-popping plus. Overall he ranks second on the club in scoring behind only AHL vet Seth Griffith, while his +16 leads the club and is rivaled only by linemates Drake Caggiula (+14) and James Hamblin (+12). This on a team that is roughly break-even once powerplay goals are discounted.

For obvious reasons Savoie was a player of particular interest when viewing Sunday’s game. He’s certainly getting plenty of opportunity on a strong forward line and the first unit on both special teams. It wasn’t his most dynamic night offensively with just 1 shot on goal. But I found plenty of encouraging signs in his overall play in all 3 zones.

He plays an excellent positional game, provides good puck support, and is quick and decisive when the disc becomes available. This was apparent on an early shift when he was well-placed to jump on a loose puck on d-zone wall and make a quick outlet pass. On another breakout play he instantly moved the puck laterally across the neutral zone to a mate with a bit more space in front of him. Savoie made a good stop in the defensive slot in the final minute of regulation to help protect the 1 point.

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Savoie looked solid on the PK, primarily with Noah Philp, with smart reads and safe clears. The powerplay didn’t have a strong night, but he was central to its best sequence, an 80-second o-zone cycle, setting up a couple of open mates for one-timers that failed to hit the target.

He earned his assist on the (first) tying goal in the third period, when his dangerous pass across the slot missed Caggiula at the net front but ultimately found Ronnie Attard who ripped it home through the chaos in front.

He took a tripping penalty with a mistimed step-up in the neutral zone, but the 6-for-6 PK unit cleared that one too. He got tripped in the neutral zone in the dying seconds of OT, but by the time his mates forced a touch-up only 9 seconds remained for a brief powerplay that went nowhere.In the shootout he had a chance to win it but his deke was thwarted by a well-timed pokecheck.

Other player notes

I also took some rough notes on a few other players of interest in the system.

Goaltender

Olivier Rodrigue — Mixed messages on this night. Made a terrific save on point blank shot off a cross crease pass, allowing no rebound. Was a big part of the penalty kill, thwarting a one-timer with a strong right pad save and another with his blocker. Made several fine stops in rapid succession midway in the second but was unable to freeze the puck, with the Firebirds notching the 1-1 on the continuation. 2 excellent saves on a PP that followed shortly thereafter to stop the bleeding. Another terrific point blank save off a cross-crease pass early in the third. But was beaten on the short side from the faceoff dot a minute or so later, a good shot by hotshot rookie Jani Nyman (his 20th of the season, most of any rookie) but a bad goal from the netminder’s perspective. After the Condors tied it, Rodrigue was beaten again on a net-front deflection that found a hole on what had seemed like a routine 2-on-2. Terrific post-to-post movement to deny what seemed like a sure goal on an overtime powerplay. Made a fine save on the first shootout attempt but didn’t have the answers thereafter, allowing 3 goals on the next 4 tries. Had a chance to seal the win in the third round but NHL vet Daniel Sprong beat him easily. Shootout aside, has now allowed 11 goals on 75 shots his last 3 games, all losses, and his save percentage has dropped to a mediocre .906 on the season.

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Defencemen

Phil Kemp — Opened the scoring with his seventh goal of the season, a new career high, on a strong wrister from the right circle. Made a fine play to pull down a high puck in front of his own cage and turn it up ice with purpose. Cleared out the crease with authority when a Firebird tried to create a rebound that wasn’t there. Big, reliable, an excellent defender at this level.

Josh Brown — Played a calm, competent game, on an imposing pair with Kemp. Picked his spots when to step up the physical play. Decked a marauding Firebird with a heavy open-ice check in the defensive slot. His years of NHL experience showed in his steady play.

Forwards

Drake Caggiula — Among the most interesting Condors to watch, creating plenty of chaos not all of it of the good kind. Killed a penalty by drawing a penalty. Took a sharp Seth Griffith feed, made a terrifc cut in the slot and broke in alone on Ales Stezka in the Firebirds cage but couldn’t solve him. Got another terrific chance from close range but just missed the target. Rocked a d-man with a heavy check. Terrific centring pass off the backhand to an onrushing Connor Carrick for a dangerous one-timer from the low slot. His hard drive to the net front created some crease chaos and ultimately the screen on Ronnie Attard’s 2-2 tally. A sloppy pass led to a 2-on-1 against, but hustled on the backtrack to help clean up the mess. His failed shot slot in OT led to a jailbreak and a Condors penalty.  He too had a chance to win it in the shootout but flipped a weak shot into Stezka’s pad. His season totals of 39 GP, 13-18-31, +14 are those of an impactful AHLer who has earned a couple of recalls already this season.

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James Hamblin — Versatile all-ice pivot is a very fine player at this level, and remains an option for recall should an injury bug hit. He burst away on a shorthanded 2-on-1 but fired just wide. Made a nifty short saucer pass to Savoie to earn a secondary helper on the 2-2. His season totals of 24 GP, 9-13-22, +12 are impressive given the amount of time he lost to injury.

Noah Philp — Strong on the forecheck and along the walls. Good slot position to tip a shot on net. Strong hustle play and excellent reach to break up a shot on what had been an odd-man rush. Fired a one-timer from the left circle that Ales Stezka kicked out. Gloved down a high pass and took the puck hard to the net for a great chance, leading to a mad scramble and what seemed to be the 2-1 goal, only to have it overturned by video review. Powered through traffic to carry the puck up the wall and found some space high in the o-zone, though nothing came of it. Fired a hard shot from the right circle that forced a fine blocker stop. Solid on the PK. Now sits at 10-8-18, +3 through 32 AHL games, roughly equivalent rates as his fine rookie season in 2022-23.

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Jacob Perreault — Early season trade acquisition took 2 penalties in the opening frame, the first on an emergency defensive play, the other 180 feet from his own net. Drew one the other way when he made a terrific move in the slot to drive the net and force the issue, the foul, and a sprawling save by Stezka. His skill flashed on occasion, though he didn’t have a huge impact on the game. Until the shootout, that is, when he scored on an absolutely filthy deke. But in real hockey the former first round pick has scored just 2 goals with -13 in 32 AHL games this year, including 2-9-11, -10 in 26 games as a Condor.

Jayden Grubbe — He’s got size and some defensive acumen, but on this night at least displayed neither the boots nor the hands to play at the next level. His first impression was a poor handle of puck in neutral zone, then a poor pass forcing an offside. Drew a penalty when he got decked by a crosscheck while protecting the puck on the wall. His line with Cameron Wright and Matvei Petrov got caught out on a 80-scecond shift that ended with 25 seconds of chaos in their own end and ultimately, the 1-1 goal with Grubbe himself unable to contain the shooter. Set up in the slot by a good Griffith pass but bobbled the opportunity away. Made a good net drive for shot attempt, then follow-up pass to Petrov. His season stats of 45 GP, 2-8-10, -17 are not promising.

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Seth Griffith — Condors captain is on an AHL contract these days but still driving the offence. Recorded a pair of primary assists on this night with a fine cross-ice pass to Kemp, then a short feed to Dylan D’Amato for the 3-3 tally with just 4 minutes left in regulation. His 44 points in 44 games are good enough for a third-place tie in AHL scoring, just 4 out of the league lead.His defensive game is not strong, and surely the reason the 32-year-old stalled out at this level.

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