Who has the edge between Edmonton and Dallas in the Western Conference Final and why: 9 Things

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The Western Conference approaches.

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With Dallas eliminating Winnipeg in Game Six Saturday night, the rematch is set in stone.

What will the keys be to the Oilers repeating last year’s triumph, and taking a second consecutive shot at Lord Stanley’s mug??

That and more in this edition of…

9 Things

9. Corey Perry turned forty on Friday. It speaks to the player’s ensuring skill, grit, and commitment when you consider he has scored twenty-four goals this year. Gordie Howe scored twenty-five in the 1968-69.

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8. Roster depth has been a common, positive theme for Edmonton in this postseason. Kasperi Kapanen’s OT winner in Game Five made him the thirteenth Oilers forward to score. Will that number climb before these playoffs are done?

7. Still on depth, if you check the game sheet from Game Five look at the TOI in the overtime period. Every player touched the ice in extra time. Every. Single. Player. That is a master class in coaching: Trusting each guy at the most critical time in the most important period of the year (to date).

6. You can point to many differences in the Oilers’ performance from the regular season to these playoffs. One of the biggest has been Evander Kane. He is a big game player with a unique set of skills. Some wanted to trade Kane this season. Not me. Who else does what he does, and when?

5. Two Oilers prospects are going to the Memorial Cup. Sam O’Reilly finished the OHL playoffs with twenty-two points in seventeen games for the London Knights. William Nicholl’s performance in comparison was muted, eight in seventeen matches. O’Reilly was the Edmonton Oilers’ first round pick in 2024 (thirty-second overall). Nicholl was a seventh rounder.

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4. A few folks questioned me after a comment that I made in advance of the Vegas series. I said that the Oilers were a faster team than the Golden Knights, even though Vegas did play “quick.” Over the final two games of the series Edmonton out chanced the Golden Knights off the rush to the tune of 22-6. This is from a Vegas team correctly applauded for its transition play out of their own end and how effectively they romp through the neutral zone.

3. Connor McDavid’s prickly answer to a perfectly fair question after Game Five raised a few eyebrows. But I think it goes back to the same source as many things we have seen in Connor’s game and approach this season: The Game Seven loss to Florida last Spring. Unless you have been in a comparable situation, it might be difficult to understand what kind of a mark a defeat like that leaves. The fire to win burns even hotter.

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2. Going into the Stanley Cup Playoffs perhaps the biggest question the Oilers must answer was whether their goaltending would stand up. Well, after a shaky start in the L.A. series both goalies have been excellent since. Calvin Pickard is on a six-game win streak. Stuart Skinner has back-to-back shutouts. In the Vegas series, the Edmonton netminders had the better Goals Saved Above Expectation in all four victories. Heading into the Western Conference Final, the healthier Skinner is the natural selection to start Game One. But as the series progresses, the team must feel great about both guys.

1.The Oilers-Stars series starts Wednesday, May 21st in Dallas. Game One will be an 8pm Eastern Time start, as will Game Two on May 23^rd. The scene will shift to Edmonton for Game Three, with a head-scratching 3pm start. Then, the balance of the games will also be 8 EST. As we surely all know by now, we have seen this movie before. And last time it ended well for Oilers fans. But these are two slightly different teams from the previous encounter. What will the differences be that may propel one club past the other. Let us break that down now:

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Goaltending. I have just been through the Oilers’ situation. Once Calvin Pickard is healthy, Edmonton has two hot hands they can go to. Jake Oettinger is one of the best keepers in the league. He is completely capable of stealing a series. Even those wearing the most Oilers-coloured of glasses would certainly admit that Dallas probably has an edge in the net. But…Edmonton has won consecutive series where that was also said about them. And they defeated Oettinger last year. So, I do not think it is quite the advantage some may.

Team Defence. The Dallas Stars had the fifth best defensive squad in the NHL this past regular season. On paper they look like a tough matchup in that respect. But…along the way to the Western Conference Final, the Oilers beat both Los Angeles and Vegas, the sixth and third best defensive squads, respectively. So, like in Goal I do not think team defence is the difference maker for Dallas that some may assume that it is. Containing the Oilers will not be easy. In fact, with a little extra rest and ample motivation, I might suggest it is a tall order.

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The Blueline. Dallas has some terrific defenders. A healthy Miro Heiskanen is a major factor. Esa Lindell is a splendid blueliner and one of the most underrated D-men in the league. We saw in the international tournament this past winter how terrific of a young defenceman Thomas Harley us. And will Cody Ceci, a guy I found that far too many Oilers faithful took for granted while he was in Edmonton is a solid presence. Dallas has the quickest, most skilled D-corps that the Oilers have faced so far. Can Mattias Ekholm return and make a difference? Advantage: Dallas.

Team Offence. Dallas finished ahead of Edmonton in overall team offence in 2024-25 (the Stars were fifth, the Oilers ninth). But I see Edmonton with the best high-end offensive skill. Mikko Rantanen is a tremendous player but until he outplays Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, I will argue that he is a quarter-rung below them both. Edmonton has been getting impressive depth contributions as I have detailed earlier in this article. and in terms of team speed the Oilers are quicker, second in the league to the Avalanche.

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Physicality. I give the Oilers the edge here. When is the last time we have been able to say that? Neither club was especially physical in the regular season. Neither even finished in the top twenty-five in terms hits. But the arrival of Evander Kane and Trent Frederic on the scene has been impactful. Edmonton has edge on all four lines.

Coaching. Two great coaches. One with loads of experience. One with relatively little. Pete Deboer has a career .585 winning percentage. Kris Knoblauch, in a much smaller sample, is at .659. But Knoblauch will only be an underdog in his role so much longer. And he won this same matchup last spring. Tie.

Intangibles. This is a tougher call. Dallas will have an axe to grind. Edmonton beat the Stars last year. There is a score to settle. But Dallas did not lose in Game Seven of the Stanley Cup Finals. I believe there is a deeper, even more acute purpose in Edmonton’s side.

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Finally, Dallas has home ice advantage and has grown into a great hockey market. But they are not the Rogers Place playoff crowd. If the Oilers can split in Dallas, advantage Edmonton.

Big Picture Prediction? Edmonton in Six. Book it.

Now on Bluesky @kurtleavins.bsky.social. Also, find me on Threads @kleavins, Twitter @KurtLeavins, Instagram at LeavinsOnHockey, and Mastodon at KurtLeavins@mstdn.social. This article is not AI generated.

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In memory of Bruce McCurdy, 1955-2025.

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